Abstract

• This study examines the influence of China's GDP growth rate on Myanmar's GDP growth rate by using time-series data from 1961 to 2023. Unit root tests, cointegration analysis, and Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models are employed to assess the impact of China's GDP on Myanmar's economic growth in both the short and long term. The findings indicate that China's GDP growth rate and Myanmar's GDP growth rate are stationary at the 1%, 5%, and 10% significance levels, with an optimal lag length of I (2). The VAR results highlight that Myanmar's GDP growth is primarily driven by its own past values, while China's growth is influenced by both its own past performance and Myanmar's recent economic activity. This suggests an asymmetric relationship between the two economies, with Myanmar having a short-term impact on China's growth, but China's influence on Myanmar being less immediate in the short term.