Abstract

• Climate change presents a global challenge, with varying effects across regions. Understanding these changes, particularly rainfall patterns, is essential for long-term agricultural planning, irrigation management, and watershed strategies. This study reviews the benefits of rainfall analysis, emphasizing its role in informing management systems and developing effective water allocation policies, especially in anticipation of drought conditions. Rainfall data in Myanmar from 1961 to 2022 were sourced from the World Bank. The main aim of the study is to find the best-fit probability distribution of rainfall in Myanmar using seven probability distributions: Normal, Log-Normal, Gumble, Generalized Extreme Value, Weibull, Log-Pearson Type-III, and Logistic (2-parameter) distributions. Based on the sources of goodness-of-fit tests, Gumbel Distribution was found to be the best-fit probability distribution of rainfall in Myanmar and probability analysis was used to evaluate rainfall trends. The findings indicate that there is a 15.87% probability of experiencing a minimum rainfall of 2193.397 mm with a 6.3-year return period whereas a maximum rainfall of 2483.941 mm has a 1.59% probability with a 63-year return period. This expected rainfall is useful for design engineers in planning hydrologic projects and designing soil conservation and drainage structures in Myanmar.